THE MARKET, THE MOOD & THE MONEY

Every January, the market does that thing where it stretches, rubs its eyes and decides who it’s going to be for the year.

Cotality’s January Monthly Housing Chart Pack just dropped, and it’s one of those “zoom out” moments. The kind that reminds us why property in Australia behaves the way it does, and why trying to time it perfectly is mostly a fantasy.

So let’s talk about what’s really going on. No doom. No hype. Just the story the numbers are telling.

The Big Picture: Property Has a Long Memory

One of the most comforting charts in the pack is a 40-year view of Australian housing values.

It shows something quietly powerful:

Over four decades, there have only been six years where values actually fell.

Even in moments that felt terrifying at the time:

• Late 80s, when interest rates hit almost 15 percent, values still surged.

• 2021, in the middle of a global pandemic, values jumped nearly 25 percent.

What this tells us is simple. Housing isn’t driven by one thing. Not rates. Not headlines. Not even fear.

It’s driven by people needing homes, cities growing, and supply never quite keeping up.

That doesn’t mean prices always go up in a straight line. But it does mean the long game has been remarkably kind to homeowners.

Australia Is Now a $12.3 Trillion Housing Market

By the end of 2025, the total value of all residential property in Australia reached $12.3 trillion.

That is not a typo.

In the past year alone:

• National dwelling values rose 8.6 percent

• The median home gained around $71,000

That is a huge amount of wealth creation sitting quietly behind front doors.

But here’s the twist.

While the yearly growth is strong, the monthly pace is cooling. Sydney and Melbourne have already seen small dips in recent weeks, and most capitals are now growing more slowly than they were mid-2025.

Not crashing. Just catching their breath.

This is what a market looks like when it moves from sprinting to walking.

The Lower Price Points Are Still on Fire

One of the clearest patterns in the chart pack is where competition is most intense.

It is not the luxury end.

It is not the trophy homes.

It is the lower quartile of the market.

The most affordable homes are:

• Growing faster

• Selling quicker

• Attracting more competition

Why? Because buyers are stretching to get in. First home buyers, upsizers, investors, all chasing the same limited pool of homes they can still justify.

This is exactly what we see on the ground in Brisbane. When something is priced “just right”, it does not sit around. It moves.

We Are Still Short on Homes

Despite strong sales last year, about 561,000 transactions nationally, total listings remain around 15 percent lower than this time last year.

That means fewer choices for buyers, more competition for quality homes, and continued support for prices, even when the market cools.

Supply is still the quiet villain in this story. And until we build meaningfully more homes, it will stay that way.

The Rental Story Is Still Tight

Rents grew 5.2 percent in 2025. Vacancy remains low. Demand is strong.

But because prices have risen faster than rents, yields are compressing.

In real words:

Property is still in demand, but you need to buy well to make the numbers work.

The era of “anything will do” investing is gone. Strategy matters now.

So, What Does This Mean for You?

If you’re a homeowner:

Your asset is sitting in a structurally strong market, even if the headlines wobble.

If you’re a buyer:

The frenzy has softened, but the competition hasn’t disappeared. Well-priced homes still move fast.

If you’re an investor:

There is opportunity, but it lives in the detail, not the hype.

And if you’re in Brisbane, watching cranes rise, this city still has a long runway ahead.

The market isn’t ending.

It’s just changing gears.

And we are here for every chapter :-)