OCTOBER: THE MONTH THE SHIFT GOT REAL

For two years Brisbane was the market everyone pointed at. Prices up, stock scarce, buyers climbing over each other at every open. October is the month that story officially ended.

The numbers tell it plainly: Values nationally have now fallen 6 months in a row, down a bit over 5% since autumn. And the sharpest monthly fall of any capital? Ours. Brisbane slid 1.5% in a single month, pipping even Sydney. The golden child is now leading the pack down.

Before anyone reaches for the panic button, some context, because the headline sounds worse than the reality. Brisbane values are off about 5.5% from their May peak. That reads grim until you remember how far they climbed to get there. Even after the fall, a Brisbane home is worth more today than it was this time last year, up close to 6% across the year. This is a market handing back a slice of an enormous run, not falling off a cliff.

The real change this month is in mood and stock more than in price. There is suddenly a lot more to buy. Advertised listings across Brisbane are up more than 60% on a year ago. But here is the part most reports skate past: new listings are actually down. Fewer people are choosing to sell, not more. What is piling up is the stuff already on the market, sitting longer because buyers are taking their time. Homes that moved in a fortnight last year now take over a month. More on the shelf, and far less pressure to grab anything.

For a buyer, this is the friendliest the market has felt in years. The scrum is gone. You can inspect twice, sleep on it, make an offer with conditions and not lose the place to someone waving unconditional cash. Sellers who were dreaming in autumn have come back to earth. That gap between hope and reality is where the good buying happens.

For a seller, it is a reality check, delivered gently. Your apartment hasn't done anything wrong. The market moved, and the number that would have sold it in April needs a rethink in October. The places still selling well are the ones priced to today. The ones that sit are chasing a figure the market has already walked away from.

A couple of bright spots to hold onto, especially around our patch. Rents are still climbing, up over 6% in Brisbane across the year and ahead of the national pace, so anyone holding an apartment is earning more from it while they wait. Yields are the strongest they have been since 2019. And inner-city units have held their annual value better than houses, because the good ones stay hard to find. Scarcity does not vanish in a soft market.

So that is October... The shift everyone could feel is now sitting in the data, and there is no arguing with it. The market has turned. A turn is not a tragedy though, and for the patient, the ready and the long-minded, a cooler Brisbane is a city full of chances the last 2 years simply did not offer.