INVESTORS ARE BACK, BUT BRISBANE IS PLAYING ITS OWN GAME

The headlines in November were LOUD. Investor lending is at decade highs, Google searches for “investment property” have jumped to levels not seen in twenty years, and APRA is hinting that new lending restrictions may land before Christmas.

It sounds dramatic, but here in Brisbane the story is more nuanced.

Investor lending has definitely picked up across Queensland, although not as sharply as in Sydney or Melbourne. The national charts look explosive because the southern capitals are roaring back into the market. Brisbane is rising too, but on a steadier curve, shaped by the same forces that have defined the last three years: chronic under supply, interstate migration, and a rental market that remains brutally tight.

That combination means values are still lifting, but the driver is not speculation. It is scarcity.

Even APRA’s warnings carry a Brisbane subtext. Yes, household debt is climbing and yes, banks are competing hard for investor loans. But Brisbane’s debt to income ratios sit well below Sydney’s extremes. Any macroprudential tightening would soften borrowing power on the margins, but it is unlikely to fundamentally reshape the behaviour of buyers in New Farm, Teneriffe, Kangaroo Point, or the CBD. Those markets are dominated by relocators, downsizers and owner occupiers with strong incomes and a clear lifestyle preference.

The federal government’s five percent deposit scheme is part of the national conversation too, but its influence barely touches the inner city. It is relevant for Logan or Ipswich or Moreton Bay, not for a two bedroom Teneriffe pad or a high floor Abian residence. Those buyers are operating in a completely different financial world.

What is relevant is confidence. Investors are watching Brisbane, drawn to the state’s migration trends, relative affordability compared to the southern capitals, and Brisbane’s incoming infrastructure wave. They are not the majority of buyers in your premium pockets, but they are back in the broader market and contributing to the pressure on a supply pipeline that has not kept up.

APRA has made it clear that the mix of rising leverage, surging investor activity and limited supply is uncomfortable. New restrictions on high debt to income loans or interest only lending would cool the edges of the market, and they would be a good thing. They would help slow speculative heat and give first home buyers some breathing room in entry level stock.

Victoria offers a glimpse of what happens when investor competition is deliberately pulled back. More first home buyers, steadier prices at the bottom of the market, and less volatility.

Brisbane is not Victoria, but the lesson is useful.

The national cycle is turning. Regulators are preparing to move. And while inner Brisbane dances to its own rhythm, it is not immune to the shifts happening around it.

For buyers and sellers, the takeaway is simple. The market is changing shape. Understanding the mechanics early, particularly how national policy filters into Brisbane’s unique supply story, is the edge that lets people make smarter, calmer decisions.