BRISBANE PROPERTY OUTLOOK FOR FY26

Two questions keep coming up in our conversations lately:

What’s next for the property market in FY26?

And are we headed for a recession?

Neither has a quick answer, but both are tightly connected. Let’s unpack them with Queensland in mind.

Are We Heading Into a Recession?

Technically, a recession means two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. As of now, the Reserve Bank, Treasury, and major banks like NAB and KPMG aren’t predicting that for FY26. Most are forecasting a slow crawl forward — growth between 1.8% and 2.3%. Not thrilling, but not collapsing either.

Unemployment is expected to hover around 4.5%, which is still within the “full employment” range. In short: no recession for now, but the risk isn’t zero. Most put the odds at under 20%.

What could tip us over? A global shock. Government policy missteps. A major slowdown in China or the US. For now, these remain possibilities, not predictions.

Brisbane and Queensland Market Outlook

Now, the part most of you are asking about: what will happen to property prices?

We’re entering a slower, more mature phase of the market cycle. No fireworks. Just fundamentals. But in Southeast Queensland, the outlook is still solid, especially for the right properties.

What to Expect in FY26:

• Well-located attached dwellings in Brisbane, the Gold Coast, and Sunshine Coast could see 7% to 9% price growth.

• Detached homes in suburban areas are more likely to grow at 3% to 5%, reflecting affordability limits.

• Demand remains strong, especially near transport hubs, lifestyle precincts, and walkable inner suburbs.

This reflects broader national trends, where attached dwellings may outpace detached homes, driven by changing buyer preferences and urban lifestyle shifts.

What’s Driving This?

1. Migration

   Queensland continues to attract interstate and overseas migrants. With net migration still topping 400,000 nationally, the pressure on housing in lifestyle-focused regions like Brisbane isn’t going away.

2. Undersupply

   Australia needs around 250,000 new homes a year. We’re building closer to 180,000. That’s a structural shortfall — worsened by labour shortages, material delays, and planning bottlenecks.

3. Interest Rates

   With the RBA expected to cut rates by up to 125 basis points over the next year, more buyers will come off the sidelines. It’s unlikely to spark another boom, but it will offer relief and increase activity.

4. Affordability & Credit

   High debt levels and tight lending conditions will keep some buyers out of the market. But for those with access and appetite, the next 12 months offer a rare window: more supply, less competition, and softer borrowing conditions.

The Ethel + Florence View

We’re not here to sugarcoat it. The days of double-digit annual gains might be behind us — for now. But Brisbane’s fundamentals remain strong:

• A growing population

• A lifestyle-led economy

• A market still catching up to our big sister capitals

In FY26, smart, well-located, liveable properties will do well. Those who plan for the long game rather than chase the short-term spike are likely to benefit.

Whether you’re considering buying, selling or simply re-evaluating your portfolio, we’re here to talk you through the nuances.

Sometimes slow and steady is exactly the right speed.